Strong Gains in Home Sales in First Half of 2016

Powerful new evidence shows that the U.S. housing market has a lot of healthy momentum in its favor. Homebuyers continue to benefit from low interest rates, and, according to a recent report, sales of newly built homes increased at a strong pace throughout the first half of this year.

The Commerce Department report found that sales for single-family residences rose 10.1 percent in the first half of 2016 compared to the opening six months of 2015. And Commerce Department officials aren?t the only ones with a positive outlook on the housing market.

Rob Martin, a Barclays economist, recently sent out a note to clients claiming that the buoyant housing market is likely to continue to support both volumes and prices over the medium term.

The Latest Numbers

Looking just at June 2016, sales were up more than 3 percent. The seasonally-adjusted sales rate rose to 592,000, which was the highest pace since before the crisis of 2008. Compared to June 2015, sales were up a staggering 25.4 percent.

In May, housing experts responding to a Wall Street Journal survey predicted an adjusted sales pace of only 559,000 for June. The previous month?s estimate of 551,000 was also off (actual sales clocked in at 572,000).

A Wider Perspective

Sales of newly-built homes are on the rise, but the pace of new home purchases and home construction still lags behind what we?ve seen in past economic expansions. New construction also happens to be a very small portion of the market, accounting for only 10 percent of overall home sales.

Most purchases are for previously owned homes, and those transactions are up 1 percent to a seasonally-adjusted pace of 5.57 million ? the highest mark since the financial crisis.

The housing sector is providing plenty of fuel for the economy as a whole. As American economic growth has sailed ahead in the past few years, home purchases have been one of the steady tailwinds making it possible.

According to the Commerce Department report mentioned earlier, investment in residential housing is responsible for more than .5 percent points of the overall 1.1 percent growth in overall GDP in the first quarter of 2016.

Many experts believe that home sales continue to be boosted by low interest rates. In June, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate was 3.57 percent, a drop from an average of 3.98 percent measured in June of 2015.

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Foreclosure Starts Buck General Mortgage Trends

Foreclosure starts are still at their lowest level since the turn of the century, but they just rose for the second month in a row. According to a report from Black Knight Financial Services, there were 69,000 foreclosures started during June of 2016, an increase of more than 11 percent over May.

Mortgages not in foreclosure but more than 30 days past due also experienced a seasonal increase in June. The number of those loans rose to almost 2.2 million, an increase of 25,000 over May. Still, year-over-year delinquencies are down by more than 235,000 overall.

The Wider Picture

Loans not in foreclosure but more than 90 days past due, termed ?seriously delinquent loans,? dropped by 27,000 from May to June to a total of 692,000. That number is 160,000 fewer ?seriously delinquent? loans than what was recorded in June of 2015.

Loans more than 90 days past due in foreclosure rose 2.3 percent to a rate of 13.54 percent. June 2016 ?completed foreclosures? increased 20.6 percent over last year.

Foreclosure inventory, a measurement of all properties in the foreclosure process, dropped by 16,000 units from May to June. The total inventory in June was 230,000 units less than what was recorded a year ago. An estimated 560,000 properties are currently considered ?in the foreclosure process.?

At the end of the reporting period, 2.7 million mortgage loans were in some stage of foreclosure or delinquency, a drop of almost half a million since June 2015. Non-current rates rose from their six-month benchmarks in three states: Alaska, North Dakota, and Wyoming. Those numbers show how the problems in the gas and oil sectors are already impacting some of the nation?s key energy producing areas.

While western, energy-reliant states are feeling the crunch, the highest rates of non-current loan activity are found in New Jersey, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Rates in those areas clock in at 8.8 percent, 9.2 percent, and 11.2 percent. Maine and Alabama round out the rest of the top five.

Refinance Activity

Black Knight Services recently reported that prepayment speeds ? typically an accurate indicator of refinancing activity ? increased in June to a 12-month high. The month-over-month jump was a robust 10.3 percent from May. The refinance activity likely corresponds to the historically low interest rates currently in place.

Mortgage industry watchers will keep a close on the new data set to be released in the upcoming Black Knight Services ?Mortgage Monitor? report.

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A Need for Reform in the Secondary Mortgage Marketplace?

Eight years ago we went through the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. In its wake, banking practices were reformed to prevent a similar recession in the future. However, according to some experts, these reform efforts have not changed the US housing market in a sustainable way.

Although it has been almost a decade and the economy has all but recovered, many are calling for legislators to push aside differences, analyze successes and failures since 2008, and chart a new plan for the future of US housing. Here are the keys to the debate.

Why do We Need Reform?

The housing market makes up about 20% of the economy. An accessible pathway to homeownership is, therefore, crucial to a stable economy. Reform is a complicated but necessary process. Whenever it does occur, it won?t be pretty, but the long-term viability of our economy may depend on it.

Today there are two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that serve as conservators for America?s housing market. They were appointed to these positions during the worst of the financial crisis as a temporary life support. Legislators have yet to decide upon a way to replace this conservatorship with something more permanent, but they are taking steps. The most important place for them to focus their attention is the secondary mortgage market.

Secondary Mortgage Market

In today?s housing economy, individual mortgages are grouped together, sold in pools to investors, and structured into mortgage-backed securities (MBS). This process is called securitization. There are three different segments responsible for securitizing mortgage pools.

First, investors can go through government intermediaries. Through this segment, they are given a seal of approval through Ginnie Mae, the Government National Mortgage Association, that their payments will arrive on time, ensuring that this is a solid investment.

Private financial institutions also bundle mortgages together, but much more risk falls on the investors in this case. Because of a lack of anti-fraud controls, this market spiked before the financial crisis and then crashed when over 1 million Americans defaulted on their mortgages. For this reason, since 2008, the private sector of MBSs has not risen over 10%.

Finally, we have the GSE market segment, controlled by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government agencies currently serving as conservators. They have by far the largest share of the market, which means that right now there are almost no options for an MBS through a non-government agency. For this reason, lawmakers are slowly, but surely, taking steps to reform the secondary mortgage marketplace to be independent of GSEs.

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